Hypersonic Weapons

Hypersonic technology has heralded a new era in defense and warfare. As nations scramble to develop these ultra-fast weapons, we find ourselves on the cusp of another arms race reminiscent of the Cold War.

One primary driver of this arms race is the sheer velocity at which hypersonic weapons can travel. Defined as speeds above Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound, these weapons can outpace any existing air defense systems, making them an imminent threat to global security [1].

Developing Hypersonic Capabilities

Currently, the United States, Russia, and China are the frontrunners in hypersonic technology. Russia’s Avangard glide vehicle, operational since 2019, can reportedly reach speeds up to Mach 27, and its ability to maneuver during flight compounds its unpredictability [2].

China, on the other hand, tested a hypersonic glide vehicle, Dongfeng-17, as early as 2014 and has conducted several tests since [3]. In 2019, China showcased the Dongfeng-17 in its National Day parade, demonstrating the weapon's potential.

The U.S., playing catch-up, has invested heavily in hypersonic research and development. The Pentagon has sought approximately $3.2 billion in fiscal 2023 for hypersonic-related research, an increase of about 23% over 2022 [4].

International Repercussions

The emergence of hypersonic weapons has introduced a multitude of geopolitical and geoeconomic implications. Hypersonic arms threaten to destabilize the existing balance of power and heighten tensions, primarily among major world powers. The prospect of a hypersonic weapon reaching its target in mere minutes amplifies the risk of miscalculations or escalations in crises, potentially triggering an inadvertent war [5].

The cost of developing and deploying hypersonic technology is colossal. The financial burden falls on the taxpayers, diverting resources away from other essential areas. Simultaneously, the private sector also stands to gain or lose. Companies invested in defense and aerospace, like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies, could reap significant profits from this new technological race, whereas other sectors might be deprived of necessary investment [6].

The Road Ahead

The hypersonic weapons race leaves no room for complacency. With the potential to redefine warfare, nations must quickly adapt to this new reality. One possible solution lies in multilateral arms control agreements. Akin to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) or the New START Treaty, nations could consider binding legal agreements to limit the development and proliferation of hypersonic weapons [7].

Unfortunately, the existing geopolitical tensions make such agreements challenging. The United States has accused Russia of violating the INF treaty, and trust between the nations is at a low point. Moreover, China, a rising military power, was never part of these Cold War-era treaties, further complicating the negotiation landscape [8].

While the odds seem stacked against a peaceful resolution, diplomacy remains our best option. As nations forge ahead in the hypersonic weapons race, it is critical to remember that the ultimate goal should be global security and peace, not superiority at any cost.

Hypersonic weapons, the new entrants in the global arms race, are reshaping geopolitical and geoeconomic landscapes. As we stand on the brink of this new era, it's vital for nations to steer their actions responsibly. The costs of failing to do so, both in terms of human lives and global stability, are simply too high.

Sources:

[1] "Hypersonic Missiles: A New Proliferation Challenge." Arms Control Association, 2021.

[2] "Russia's Avangard Hypersonic Glide Vehicle: What We Know." The Diplomat, 2019.

[3] "China’s Hypersonic Weapons Tests." The Diplomat, 2020.

[4] "Pentagon budget 2023: A Focus on Hypersonics." Defense News, 2023.

[5] "The Risks of Nuclear War with Russia." RAND Corporation, 2021.

[6] "Economic Impact of the Hypersonic Race." Forbes, 2022.

[7] "Hypersonic Weapons and Strategic Stability." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2021.

[8] "The INF Treaty: Pulling out in haste?" BBC News, 2019.