Hybrid Warfare and Information Operations

The theatre of war, the strategies deployed and the very concept of warfare are undergoing a paradigm shift. Gone are the days when warfare was confined to physical landscapes, dominated by ground troops, tanks, and aircraft. The 21st century has heralded a new age of warfare, one that is characterized by a blend of conventional and unconventional tactics, and fought as much in the cyber realm as in the physical one. Hybrid Warfare and Information Operations have emerged as powerful strategies in this changing battlefield.

Hybrid Warfare: An Overview

Hybrid Warfare represents a synthesis of conventional warfare, irregular warfare, and cyber warfare, along with other non-military means to achieve a nation's strategic objectives (Hoffman, 2007). It's a form of warfare that merges the physical and the virtual, the state and the non-state, the peace and the conflict.

This strategy first caught the world's attention with Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, a masterstroke of strategic maneuvering that combined political subversion, cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, and special operations to destabilize Ukraine and achieve its geopolitical objectives (Galeotti, 2014).

Hybrid warfare leverages the full spectrum of modern warfare. From guerilla tactics to economic sanctions, from criminal activities to cyber-attacks, the focus is on exploiting the adversary's vulnerabilities and keeping them off balance (Schmid & Jongman, 2005). It's about creating a level of uncertainty and ambiguity that prevents a clear understanding of the situation, and consequently, delays decision-making and response.

Information Operations: The Heart of Hybrid Warfare

Information Operations sit at the heart of hybrid warfare, representing all measures a nation takes to influence an adversary's decision-making process (Paul, 2011). While information operations have been used in warfare for centuries, the digital age has transformed its reach, pace, and potential impact.

These operations encompass a range of tactics, including psychological operations, disinformation campaigns, and cyber-enabled information warfare. They are designed to manipulate the information environment, disrupt critical infrastructure, sow discord, and influence public opinion and government policies.

The digital revolution, the rise of social media, and the expanding reach of the internet have provided an unprecedented platform for information operations. It has been leveraged by state and non-state actors alike to spread misleading narratives and undermine confidence in democratic processes, as evidenced by Russia's interference in the 2016 US elections (Mueller, 2019).

Adapting to the Changing Battlefield

The transformation of the battlefield requires an equally transformative shift in defense strategies. A nation's military strength, measured in conventional terms, is no longer sufficient. Instead, nations must invest in developing robust digital defenses, fostering societal resilience to disinformation, and building effective counter-influence capabilities (Nye, 2011).

This is a tall order and necessitates joint efforts from military and civilian entities. Furthermore, as cyber threats and disinformation campaigns ignore national borders, international cooperation becomes indispensable. An attack on one is essentially an attack on all, making collective defense strategies imperative.

In addition to this, the international community needs to focus on developing and enforcing norms and regulations for cyber warfare and information operations. The aim should be to deter escalation, ensure responsible state behavior, and create a framework for proportional response (Schmitt, 2017).

As we journey further into the digital age, the very definition of war and peace is being blurred. The battlefield has moved beyond the physical realm, and it's time for our understanding and approach to warfare to adapt to this reality.

The Case Study: Hybrid Warfare in the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia provides a compelling study of hybrid warfare in action. From the onset of the conflict in 2014, Russia has adopted a range of traditional and non-traditional tactics to achieve its strategic objectives, providing a clear demonstration of hybrid warfare.

Political Subversion and Psychological Warfare

The conflict was set against a backdrop of political subversion. Leveraging historical grievances, linguistic differences, and political divisions within Ukraine, Russia fueled unrest and separatist sentiments, especially in the Crimea and Donbass regions (Herszenhorn, 2014). This psychological warfare played a critical role in destabilizing Ukraine and providing a pretext for further Russian intervention.

Cyber Attacks and Information Warfare

Cyber warfare played a significant role in the conflict. Russian hackers launched attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, including power grids, leading to widespread blackouts (Zetter, 2016). Additionally, government websites, news platforms, and communication networks were also targeted, disrupting services and spreading chaos.

Alongside these cyber attacks, a disinformation campaign was rolled out, primarily through Russian state-controlled media outlets and social media. The objective was to control the narrative of the conflict, both domestically and internationally. False stories, deepfakes, and online trolls were used to distort reality, discredit the Ukrainian government, and garner support for Russian actions (Paul & Matthews, 2016).

Special Operations and Irregular Forces

On the ground, Russia employed a mix of regular and irregular forces to confuse the enemy and the international community. 'Little green men' – armed forces in unmarked uniforms – appeared in Crimea, denying direct Russian involvement (Galeotti, 2014). Simultaneously, Russia supported local separatist groups with weapons, military training, and personnel, fuelling the conflict while maintaining a degree of plausible deniability.

Economic Coercion

Russia also used its economic leverage over Ukraine as part of its hybrid warfare strategy. By manipulating gas prices and trade agreements, Russia exerted economic pressure on the Ukrainian government, further destabilizing the country and shaping the conflict's progression (Oliker, 2015).

The Ukraine-Russia conflict underscores the complexities of hybrid warfare in the 21st century. It demonstrates how states can utilize a range of military and non-military tools, working in concert, to achieve their geopolitical objectives. This case study stands as a stark reminder of the evolving nature of warfare and the urgent need for states and the international community to understand and adapt to these changes.

References

Galeotti, M. (2014). The 'Gerasimov Doctrine' and Russian Non-Linear War. In Moscow's Shadows.

Herszenhorn, D. M. (2014). Ukraine Falters in Drive to Curb Unrest in East. The New York Times.

Oliker, O. (2015). Russia’s Use of Military Force as a Foreign Policy Tool: Is There a Logic? RAND Corporation.

Paul, C., & Matthews, M. (2016). The Russian "Firehose of Falsehood" Propaganda Model. RAND Corporation.

Zetter, K. (2016). Inside the Cunning, Unprecedented Hack of Ukraine's Power Grid. Wired.

Bradshaw, S., & Howard, P. N. (2019). The Global Disinformation Order: 2019 Global Inventory of Organised Social Media Manipulation. Oxford Internet Institute.

Hoffman, F. G. (2007). Conflict in the 21st Century: The Rise of Hybrid Wars. Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.

Mueller, R. S. (2019). Report On The Investigation Into Russian Interference In The 2016 Presidential Election. U.S. Department of Justice.

Nye, J. S. (2011). The Future of Power. PublicAffairs.

Paul, C. (2011). Information Operations—Doctrine and Practice: A Reference Handbook. Praeger Security International.

Schmid, A. P., & Jongman, A. J. (2005). Political Terrorism: A New Guide to Actors, Authors, Concepts, Data Bases, Theories, and Literature. Transaction Publishers.

Schmitt, M. N. (2017). Tallinn Manual 2.0 on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Operations. Cambridge University Press.